Looking at the forecast holy buckets

  • gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2254427

    60? Where?

    This is what NOAA says.

    There are signs we could get another shot of springlike air in the last week of February. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model suggests highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees across southern Minnesota in the last week of February.

    tswoboda
    Posts: 7821
    #2254430

    Cripes. 60 in February, ish

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2254432

    I know you miss winter. Haha

    bigstorm
    Southern WI
    Posts: 1330
    #2254587

    in southern WI, I was on the ice las on 1/30, wasnt able to get out the past 2 weekends, and Im hanging it up for the season now as most lakes I ice fish in southern WI have enough open water that I cant get to many spots to ice fish anymore. Shortest season in my 35yrs of ice fishing

    lindyrig79
    Forest Lake / Lake Mille Lacs
    Posts: 5317
    #2254693

    Unfortunately (for me) the Florida forecast is a solid 10 plus degrees below normal. Coolest winter they’ve had down there in 20 some years.

    Dutchboy
    Central Mn.
    Posts: 16103
    #2254702

    Lots of people on Mille Lacs today with this wind and sunshine.

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2255356

    Forecast models are still predicting 60 degrees in southern MN next week. It will lock us into the warmest winter on record here in MN even if March is significantly colder than average. Des Moines, Iowa could hit 70 degrees.

    A winter severity index is posted every year ranging from 0 to 132 by the NOAA. This year’s ranking in MN, WI, and most of Michigan: 1. Yes, 1 out of a possible 132 with 0 being the weakest and 132 being the strongest. Its based on extreme cold and snowfall amounts which have been non-existent in the northern tier.

    glenn57
    cold spring mn
    Posts: 10518
    #2255360

    i keep an eye on the WSI….winter severity index the Mn DNR has for deer…..it aint moved from the lowest range!!!!! yay waytogo

    tswoboda
    Posts: 7821
    #2256329

    50+ today and sub-zero blizzard tomorrow. The Weather is drunk

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    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2256341

    The Weather is drunk

    And looking further to the right, even warmer.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256350

    Ive been saying it for months now we are going to pay for this mild winter in March and April. YOu just watch.

    BigWerm
    SW Metro
    Posts: 10301
    #2256353

    I flew in this weekend over the west metro and MSP city lakes, and can’t say I’d venture out on any of them. I’m sure there’s a few places someone might be able to sneak out, but I’m keeping my ice fishing gear in the rafters, where it’s been all season!

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2256354

    Ive been saying it for months now we are going to pay for this mild winter in March and April. YOu just watch.

    Very unlikely given that El Nino is supposed to continue into the summer. I’m afraid that drought is probably going to be a problem again. Not a fan.

    Justin riegel
    Posts: 816
    #2256360

    I am thinking there will be a bunch of open lakes on Sunday. If the forecast holds and it stays above freezing for 4 days and then blows 20-30 mph on Sunday things will happen quick.

    tswoboda
    Posts: 7821
    #2256361

    Ive been saying it for months now we are going to pay for this mild winter in March and April. YOu just watch.

    If by “pay for this” you mean forced to cancel winter camping and out west ski trips… then yes I completely agree we’re going to pay for it coffee

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256363

    Very unlikely given that El Nino is supposed to continue into the summer. I’m afraid that drought is probably going to be a problem again. Not a fan.

    Well you wont have to mow much again so theres that. I just have this feeling we are going to get hammered. Maybe not all snow and lots of rain, but it I have seen the story play out far too many times regardless if its an el nino or super el nino to think any different.

    gimruis
    Plymouth, MN
    Posts: 14999
    #2256365

    Well you wont have to mow much again so theres that. I just have this feeling we are going to get hammered. Maybe not all snow and lots of rain

    That brings up yet another issue on the landscape: fire. If we don’t start getting any moisture, fire bans will be in place soon because “green up” takes a while. And there’s almost no snow cover out there.

    I’d be fine with a monsoon of rain this spring lol

    Riverrat
    Posts: 1168
    #2256368

    I was just reading the local news about a grainery burning down last night, and then they announced they would be doing two controlled burns today. We never got that valentines snow storm or any rain. I’m thinking burning is not really a good idea right now. We need some rain out this way.

    buckybadger
    Upper Midwest
    Posts: 7303
    #2256371

    Everyone always has the “we will get paid back” line ready to use, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.

    I think this Winter is about to give us one more 24 hour shot for the greater part of the state, and then will be mostly gone after this Wednesday. Just the thermal properties of the ground alone make it awfully hard to stay “cold”…with all this dark exposed ground sucking in ever strengthening sunshine and 0” of frost and no snow most places. Sure there may be a couple more systems that drop some slushy snow in the metro and areas southward, but I’d still bet on record warmth to continue before Winter showing up for any significant length of time again.

    If we are really looking into the future and wondering if we will be paid back for the warmest winter ever I’d look to next Fall/Winter where probabilities of a La Nina pattern developing are increasing.

    …with all that said we could get a foot of tree busting snow in May too to complete the full cycle of weather chaos

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256375

    Oh, its not going to get brutally cold that is a for sure.

    suzuki
    Woodbury, Mn
    Posts: 18127
    #2256379

    It sure is interesting to see all this play out. Im not happy about it but it certainly is a spectacle for people of all ages.
    Could be worse. We could all be eclipse chasers…….

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256403

    I just saw a honeybee. Holy buckets!

    weedis
    Sauk Rapids, MN
    Posts: 1024
    #2256450

    I must say this isn’t soo bad

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    bigstorm
    Southern WI
    Posts: 1330
    #2256501

    Its forecasted to hit 70F here today and then drop to 20F by 8AM tomorrow, thats pretty crazy

    tswoboda
    Posts: 7821
    #2256520

    Its forecasted to hit 70F here today and then drop to 20F by 8AM tomorrow, thats pretty crazy

    This weather change is crazy. Yesterday was 55 and sunny here, and tonight the wind chill predicted to hit -25. Yesterday kids were out riding bikes in T-shirts, and today it’s a blizzard with schools 2 hours late and some cancelled.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256523

    I follow multiple different weather dudes, 2 do it just for fun while one is actually a meteorologist and all of their forecasts are wildly different. 1 calls for a massive amount of snow in I Falls, 1 calls for like very little snow anywhere and the other calls for a heavy band across WI. I dont understand how they can be that incredibly different.

    10klakes
    Posts: 394
    #2256559

    from 50’s to no travel advisory in NW minnesota. crazy.

    TillrLife
    Cold Spring, MN
    Posts: 539
    #2256574

    I follow multiple different weather dudes, 2 do it just for fun while one is actually a meteorologist and all of their forecasts are wildly different. 1 calls for a massive amount of snow in I Falls, 1 calls for like very little snow anywhere and the other calls for a heavy band across WI. I dont understand how they can be that incredibly different.

    Because two to it just for fun and are taking wild guesses based on whatever model they are looking at and the other actually has formal training, uses the model as reference and his overall experience to predict the weather. A veteran meteorologist will typically predict the weather more accurately than the models do. The models are just that, a bunch of data that the computer spits out, normally with multiple layers, and it just takes an average of those layers to give raw information.

    While I was in school for metrology, my weather predictions were wild guesses that mostly missed. Why, because I just had not studied the weather to the point of veteran meteorologists. Many times it’s just luck when you actually hit the nail on the head.

    Then, there are meteorologist that are inherently optimistic, and will always overshoot, some that are very conservative, and thus predict on the light side. If you want a real forecast, talk to Flight Dispatchers for airlines, but maybe I am just biased.

    CaptainMusky
    Posts: 19605
    #2256581

    Because two to it just for fun and are taking wild guesses based on whatever model they are looking at and the other actually has formal training, uses the model as reference and his overall experience to predict the weather. A veteran meteorologist will typically predict the weather more accurately than the models do. The models are just that, a bunch of data that the computer spits out, normally with multiple layers, and it just takes an average of those layers to give raw information.

    While I was in school for metrology, my weather predictions were wild guesses that mostly missed. Why, because I just had not studied the weather to the point of veteran meteorologists. Many times it’s just luck when you actually hit the nail on the head.

    Then, there are meteorologist that are inherently optimistic, and will always overshoot, some that are very conservative, and thus predict on the light side. If you want a real forecast, talk to Flight Dispatchers for airlines, but maybe I am just biased.

    well guess who of the 3 is most accurate with what is actually happening 1 of the 2 who do it as a hobby LOL

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