Ice Out predictions – Mille Lacs and Lake Minnetonka

So the Average ice out date for Lake Minnetonka is April 13th – The earliest was March 11th in 1878
The Average for Mille lacs is April 25th and the earliest is March 26th in 2012

What are all your predictions for this years ice out date for each ?
What is the chance that both records will be broken for the earliest ever?

Its been a crazy winter. Minnetonka’s forecast for the next 3 days are all 50+, Then a week of Mid 30’s, followed by 5 Days in the upper 20’s for highs. That takes us all the way to the 19th. My guess is the Record will fall for lake Minnetonka.
I think Mille will be close to the record as well.

What say all of you ?

fishthumper wrote:

So the Average ice out date for Lake Minnetonka is April 13th – The earliest was March 11th in 1878
The Average for Mille lacs is April 25th and the earliest is March 26th in 2012

What are all your predictions for this years ice out date for each ?
What is the chance that both records will be broken for the earliest ever?

Its been a crazy winter. Minnetonka’s forecast for the next 36 days are all 50+, Then a week of Mid 30’s, followed by 5 Days in the upper 20’s for highs. That takes us all the way to the 19th. My guess is the Record will fall for lake Minnetonka.
I think Mille will be close to the record as well.

What say all of you ?

What weather app/program are you using? I rarely can find something reliable beyond the 10 day model runs that constantly change…much less over 40 days in advance

buckybadger wrote:

What weather app/program are you using? I rarely can find something reliable beyond the 10 day model runs that constantly change…much less over 40 days in advance

Sorry. I corrected that. Next 3 days

Ya I wouldn’t trust anything beyond the 10-14 forecast, and even that should be taken with a grain of salt.

Looks warm for a few days and then rain. Followed by more “seasonable” temps but still above average temps.

I think Minnetonka will be in rough shape after the warmth and rain, but it could easily “re-freeze” should a cold snap ensue in late Feb or early March. I will say March 2 it is gone for good this spring.

Mille Lacs, I will predict 2 weeks later. March 16.

gimruis wrote:

Ya
I think Minnetonka will be in rough shape after the warmth and rain, but it could easily “re-freeze” should a cold snap ensue in late Feb or early March. I will say March 2 it is gone for good this spring.

Mille Lacs, I will predict 2 weeks later. March 16.

The sun needs to be higher in the sky do much to the ice. Rain will bust ice up especially with some thunder. It’s pretty early in Feb yet and this month can be a real dick when it comes to winter weather so I’m getting too excited about open water just yet, but I am headed to Two Harbors tomorrow and will be on the breakwater casting by mid-afternoon.

fishthumper wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>buckybadger wrote:</div>
What weather app/program are you using? I rarely can find something reliable beyond the 10 day model runs that constantly change…much less over 40 days in advance

Sorry. I corrected that. Next 3 days

Just messing with you!

I’ll say Minnetonka beats the record by 1 day and is gone March 10th.

I think Mille Lacs misses the record by 5 days and has ice out March 31st

What affect does thunder have on ice?

It can fracture the ice….the concussion.

Looking at the extended forecast, will the March 11th ice-out date for Minnetonka get broken?

It will be a bountiful year for posts biatching about netting.

A ton of the lakes in north are looking stupid dark lol.

BrianF wrote:

Looking at the extended forecast, will the March 11th ice-out date for Minnetonka get broken?

My guess is yes. Once it starts it will happen FAST. No snow cover to have to melt and far less ice than normal

Charles wrote:

A ton of the lakes in north are looking stupid dark lol.

that must of changed fast I wax up in Itasca County 7-10 days ago and the ice looked good then yet.

I’ll agree there wasn’t as much ice as usual but still good clear ice

Fast only happens with warm rain and strong wind after things open a bit. I would love a March 10 ice out.

Anyone been over to see? It has to be close.

Wndrdr wrote:

Anyone been over to see? It has to be close.

I received a text message from a friend who drove around a sizable portion of Minnetonka yesterday and he sent me some photos too. Many of the bays and channels were ice free, but he still saw some ice out there on a couple bigger bays.

I think its going to be close to the record. A month or so ago I thought there would be lots of records set. It seems like we got just enough cold fronts at key times to delay it loner than expected in many area’s. Its crazy how different lakes can be in the same general area. There are lakes around my area that are nearly ice free and a few miles away there are lakes they are still ice fishing. Clearwater lake I’m told is probably 50-75% ice free. While on a lake near the horseshoe chain there was still people ice fishing last sunday. Same up in the Battle lake area. Some lakes are nearly ice free and other are still locked tight to shore. Crazy year for sure.

Buddy was just on Reno over the weekend and said there was only 5 inches and the ice was terrible. He put his gear away after that.

i just came back from the drive around the chain……10X more open water then sunday…..and i’m going out on a limb..the ice thats left aint safe…. even if you could get on it!

Maxwell and north arm were ice free.

Crystal and the main was still iced over good, lil breaking up in browns.

Every small lake i drove by in Osseo Medina mntka area was ice free.

I have probably my last ice fishing outing planned for this Sat. A buddy was at the lake on Monday and said the ice is still tight to the shore and there is still 11-12″ of ice where we plan to fish. The forecast for the rest of this week is rather cool in the area. After this weekend I see a string of 4-5 days with the temps in the Mid 50’s for the area so I doubt the ice will last till the following week.

Well Minnetonka missed the record by 2 days. A month ago I thought there was NO chance it would not be a new record. Mother Nature hit the brakes a few times along the way.

Going to be windy this weekend. Lots of lakes in the Alexandria area are ice free and with the wind this weekend, most should be finished.
DT

Mille is open on the north end about 400 yards out… that wind later today should have it shore piling pretty good on the East side.

big_g wrote:

Mille is open on the north end about 400 yards out… that wind later today should have it shore piling pretty good on the East side.

Still plenty of time for that March 26th ice out record on Mille Lacs.

They declared ice out on Tonka on March 13. The record was March 11.

Looking on satellite it looks like Mille Lacs is open. Tough to tell in the SE due to clouds, but might be some ice left in Isle Bay.

Yeah, I would agree. Pretty sure you could get from Garrison to Isle in a boat today.

You would think they would call it today looking at this image.

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New record for Mille Lacs on earliest ice out. Mar 16th.

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