Epic Forecast Fail

12 to 15 inches of snow prediction for TC metro down to just predicted 3-5? WTF?

-J.

The forcasters were foolish to predict 12+” of snow with the temperature so close to the freezing point. The media has this storm so hyped up you would think the state should be shut down. I’ve got maybe an inch of slush so far.

Climate change?

Sometimes they just need to look out the window to be more accurate.

Weather forecasting will never be an exact science. They forecast weather by computer models and the best information they have at the time.

The wife is in Fergus Falls for the weekend and it sounds like they got it right over there. She claims 12″ and I’m not about to question her.

Jon Jordan wrote:

12 to 15 inches of snow prediction for TC metro down to just predicted 3-5? WTF?

-J.

12-15″s was way at the extreme high end of what they were predicting. NWS even reported less than 10% chance of reaching that total. Highest probability was between 6-10″s.

See what’s in your driveway in the morning. If it’s at least 6 inches…then there really wasn’t an epic forecast fail.

I plow for a living and follow several weather reports religiously and never had a report for 15” I’ve been looking at 8-10” steady with the occasional chance of 12” in isolated areas. Up to this point in the north branch forest lake area the forecast is looking accurate but will see where we end in the AM.

This is the map I had 2 days ago.

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I just left the buffalo power plant and they had a ton of heavy rain and then at least 2 inches of snow. Roads are terrible. On my way back to north branch

It’s winding down quick. Radar shows maybe a couple more hours, then done.

Easy storm with the weather forecasted this week. No need too shovel. Mother nature will wash it away mid week.

riverruns wrote:

It’s winding down quick. Radar shows maybe a couple more hours, then done.

Easy storm with the weather forecasted this week. No need too shovel. Mother nature will wash it away mid week.

Fine by me! Spring is coming next week.

I’m sure trying to predict the future is pretty easy……

just came in from cleaning off the deck and sidewalk. 6 inches of wet heavy snow!!!!! and it is still snowing heavy.

nice warm rain mid week will reduce the snowpack in SE MN so that is good. I hope we get a couple mild weeks and let it seep into the ground a bit after that. I wasn’t buying the forecast I read about but I will take it! 1.5″ so I am glad they missed it!

riverruns wrote:

It’s winding down quick. Radar shows maybe a couple more hours, then done.

Easy storm with the weather forecasted this week. No need too shovel. Mother nature will wash it away mid week.

I’m seeing that too on the radar. Warmer air pushing farther north than predicted. Looks like the heavy snow fell farther to the west-NW. Still a chance for the counter clockwise pushing it back down for the wrap around.

Speaking of clocks…everyone remember to spring ahead tonight?

This is weather terrorism

And some of us are looking ahead to the epic flooding forecasted for pool 4 and south. I’m sure feeling it’s gonna be ugly. It’ll be the dog and myself camping at the house, if the predictions are correct.

https://www.weather.gov/arx/Springfloodoutlook

good to be great like you

so tell me, if you’re predictions are so great, why do you fish on days when you don’t catch anything? oh yeah, it’s that whole mother nature thing.

when i was a ski guide in CO, people always said every avalanche expert they knew was dead, meaning they often died when their “forecasts” said it was safe to be out there. there’s no hero in being an armchair qb, grow up

All I’ve heard for the last 3 days is 6-10″ of very wet snow. The plows have already been by and we have probably 5″.
Personally I think the the weather folks have been spot on all winter.

Andover we got 3″

Pete S wrote:

good to be great like you

so tell me, if you’re predictions are so great, why do you fish on days when you don’t catch anything? oh yeah, it’s that whole mother nature thing.

when i was a ski guide in CO, people always said every avalanche expert they knew was dead, meaning they often died when their “forecasts” said it was safe to be out there. there’s no hero in being an armchair qb, grow up

Pete, I call Bull sht on you. You were never a guide in CO. No one has called their self a “ski Guide, ever. I have worked and skied in the backcountry for over 20 years. I, and everyone of my “ski Guiding” friends are still alive. The dope smoking wanna be “ski Guides” are probably what you describe. Where did you Guide? What Range? What training? Equipment? You can google all you want but if you never done it I can tell if your a NOOB by your reply.

Sorry about the Rant. High Country safety is my thing. Especially this winter. Avi danger is High now everywhere. Rockies, Cascades, Sierras. Don’t make fun of experts that predict risk.

Sincerely,

A MN fisherman and High-country professional

Alexandria area is getting hit hard. It just came later than predicted.
DT

Yep, we got a wrap around. I was hopeful at 10’o clock last night that central MN was going to be spared, but it looks like we are well on our way to 8+.

we got all ice here by me in south central WI. I was hoping for the warmer temps and a little rain the get the remaining ice dams meltsed Instead I have 3 to 5′ icicles hanging from the gutters and tree limbs all over the yard. Few pear trees and a birch got it bad. I haven’t been out yet, so I don’t know how widespread all the ice or damage is yet

dtw, call what you want,the point about being an avalanche “expert” are often the ones who get in trouble. there are people out there that I know right now trying to keep people safe and doing their best, those who think they can outsmart mother nature are the ones that don’t make it home. that was my point, not that people don’t know what theyre doing, those that do have tremendous respect for it and understand the unpredictability of it all.

Anonymous wrote:

I’m sure trying to predict the future is pretty easy……

That’s what threads like this make me think.

Belinda had a nice outfit on yesterday.

Eelpoutguy wrote:

Belinda had a nice outfit on yesterday.

Dang, I missed it.