Well, I lived through it

Glad you made it Brian. Rough ride, but you made it. The random nature of who and how badly people get hit by this is what I find the most scary.

To date, the two people I know who got COVID are both women, ages 46 and 51. Both were tested and were positive. Neither had underlying health conditions or elevated risk factors. One recovered within days, the other was in the ICU on oxygen for 6 days and was very near getting put on a ventilator, she was released after 13 days in the hospital, but I would say is far from recovered even 10 days after release.

Grouse

big_g wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>bioguy wrote:</div>
This is a classic example of getting out beyond ones ski tips, i.e. ER doc delving into statistical epidemiology. The entire premise is flawed by his extrapolation of non-randomly sampled test data to a larger, random population. It violates statistics 101. I will fully admit I want data to support re-starting society, but this isn’t it.

As Mark Twain once said, “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>B-man wrote:</div>
Here’s some science and numbers and stuff from a doctor guy

<div class=”ido-oembed-wrap”><iframe title=”Doctor Says 6 Feet Apart, We Are All Dead #153news” width=”850″ height=”478″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/wyjtDH__Px4?feature=oembed” frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen=””></iframe></div>

So the “experts” that said 2.2 million deaths in the US, WITH Stay in Place orders and social distancing ??? Your thoughts on that “expert extrapolation” ?

There’s been no shortage of dodgy extrapolations during the course of this thing.

big_g wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>bioguy wrote:</div>
This is a classic example of getting out beyond ones ski tips, i.e. ER doc delving into statistical epidemiology. The entire premise is flawed by his extrapolation of non-randomly sampled test data to a larger, random population. It violates statistics 101. I will fully admit I want data to support re-starting society, but this isn’t it.

As Mark Twain once said, “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>B-man wrote:</div>
Here’s some science and numbers and stuff from a doctor guy

<div class=”ido-oembed-wrap”><iframe title=”Doctor Says 6 Feet Apart, We Are All Dead #153news” width=”850″ height=”478″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/wyjtDH__Px4?feature=oembed” frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen=””></iframe></div>

So the “experts” that said 2.2 million deaths in the US, WITH Stay in Place orders and social distancing ??? Your thoughts on that “expert extrapolation” ?

My god, I need to just leave it alone but I hate misinformation. I am not defending the 2.2 million death report, it was obviously flawed. However, to say that estimate INCLUDED SOCIAL DISTANCING AND STAY AT HOME ORDERS is just a flat out lie. That report explicitly stated that it was if literally nothing changed. No increase in hospital supplies, no increased hand washing, no social distancing. It was if life continued exactly the same. I know Fox News has stated that it included social distancing but they are wrong, flat out wrong. As I said earlier everyone can think whatever they want but to say that the report you are referencing included stay at home and social distancing is a lie and blatant misinformation. The report is 20 pages and is heavy with statistics. Here is a link to a breakdown of what that report entailed and why it was misinformed, just in case anyone wants to know for themselves.
https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

Doug M wrote:

I have followed this thread from the beginning and many times started a reply but then delete it. I respect everyone having their own opinion and beliefs. I also question whether information I gather is accurate, but with a 29 year old stepson who is type 1 diabetic, we have taken this pretty serious. He was laid off from work for a couple of weeks but was now called back in. I can tell you he is not as scared for his own well being as his mother is. Not much choice as he needs health ins and a paycheck. We don’t worry about what catching this would do to us, but to what would happen if he caught it. Just curious if there is anyone in a similar situation and how you are coping with the scary situation.

BK, glad to hear you are doing better!

Sorry to hear of your sons issues. Most of what I heard and most seem to agree on, your son should take extra ordinary precautions, if he has underlying health issues. Wearing a N95 mask, washing frequently, don’t touch your face. Quarantine in place, as much as possible, until this has passed. I would not suggest going out to places others could go for you, such as to Walmart and Lowes and grocery stores.

It’s the simple calculation that we were told originally if 60% of us are infected with a 1% mortality rate with nothing else done. Hopefully in reality it is under .25-.50% cause that is still 500,000- 1 million. We know the infection rate is high, we just don’t know how low the mortality rate is yet. Definitely lower than originally suspected especially when factoring a symptomatic people. But the mortality rate has to be much lower than .1% to keep deaths under 200,000. I hope in reality it is even lower than that.

Glad to hear you’re okay, I was kind of wondering because I had not seen you on Facebook for a while…

That was a good read…. it was based on people not changing their habits, but it did leave out any kind of overwhelmed healthcare system scenario… It predicted 81% American infection rate, using a 2.4 ratio. In other words, infected numbers doubling every 4 days until July. It did not include social distancing or Stay in place considered. Funny how it said, the 2.4 ratio was based on China’s early numbers, which now, using the numbers, it is basically ZERO. Learned something new ! Thanks !

big_g wrote:

That was a good read…. it was based on people not changing their habits, but it did leave out any kind of overwhelmed healthcare system scenario… It predicted 81% American infection rate, using a 2.4 ratio. In other words, infected numbers doubling every 4 days until July. It did not include social distancing or Stay in place considered. Funny how it said, the 2.4 ratio was based on China’s early numbers, which now, using the numbers, it is basically ZERO. Learned something new ! Thanks !

Appreciate you taking the time to read it

big_g wrote:

That was a good read…. it was based on people not changing their habits, but it did leave out any kind of overwhelmed healthcare system scenario… It predicted 81% American infection rate, using a 2.4 ratio. In other words, infected numbers doubling every 4 days until July. It did not include social distancing or Stay in place considered. Funny how it said, the 2.4 ratio was based on China’s early numbers, which now, using the numbers, it is basically ZERO. Learned something new ! Thanks !

Btw at the time it was written the only information available was whatever limited info coming out of China. In the actual report they discussed the limitations of this and gave a range based on different assumptions. That was why the report changed fairly quickly once they were observing the data from Italy. All of this information and modeling is limited by a lack of testing.

Don’t worryaboutit wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>big_g wrote:</div>
That was a good read…. it was based on people not changing their habits, but it did leave out any kind of overwhelmed healthcare system scenario… It predicted 81% American infection rate, using a 2.4 ratio. In other words, infected numbers doubling every 4 days until July. It did not include social distancing or Stay in place considered. Funny how it said, the 2.4 ratio was based on China’s early numbers, which now, using the numbers, it is basically ZERO. Learned something new ! Thanks !

Btw at the time it was written the only information available was whatever limited info coming out of China. In the actual report they discussed the limitations of this and gave a range based on different assumptions. That was why the report changed fairly quickly once they were observing the data from Italy. All of this information and modeling is limited by a lack of testing.

Yes the report had 550k dead in the UK and 2.2m is the US, which caused both Johnson and Trump to wet themselves and change policy. The study doesn’t give all the details on the US, but for the UK the range was 5,600 to 550k depending on strategy so obviously not very dialed in due to limited data. Oh and those numbers are based on two year totals. We are a couple months into this. It would be interesting to know what the range was for the US, but again with such a wide range it really doesn’t matter. And this was just one early model.

But this is how this will all play out. One model says 2.2m dead if we do nothing. We do something and the numbers are not anywhere near that. Then all the internet geniuses know more than scientist and this was all media driven or a hoax the whole time.

Another good read explaining epidemiological models. Don’t believe the models

I never said it was a Hoax, it exists. Simple questions and yes, it is comparable to the flu strains in MANY ways. (did you know you can carry and transmit the flu and never actually have any symptoms ?) Does the media report EVERY flu diagnosis, nope. Do they have a daily counter ? Nope. Do they report EVERY flu death ? Nope. Is the flu talk ALL OVER social media ALL the TIME !!! Has it ever been posted on IDO how terrible the flu is ??? Not that I am aware. Do the numbers today, after all we know, point to the fact that it should be continued down the path, to ruin the economy ? To me, No. There are some saying ALREADY, we need to vote by Mail come November ? Really ? Can’t we just go to Walmart where it is safe and vote ?

Glad to hear you’re doing better, Brian!

It’s been pretty up close & personal in our family.

How do you know it was it? Could have just been a flu….

big_g wrote:

I never said it was a Hoax, it exists. Simple questions and yes, it is comparable to the flu strains in MANY ways. (did you know you can carry and transmit the flu and never actually have any symptoms ?) Does the media report EVERY flu diagnosis, nope. Do they have a daily counter ? Nope. Do they report EVERY flu death ? Nope. Is the flu talk ALL OVER social media ALL the TIME !!! Has it ever been posted on IDO how terrible the flu is ??? Not that I am aware. Do the numbers today, after all we know, point to the fact that it should be continued down the path, to ruin the economy ? To me, No. There are some saying ALREADY, we need to vote by Mail come November ? Really ? Can’t we just go to Walmart where it is safe and vote ?

Sorry G I wasn’t directing the hoax comment at you. Just in general. I see you didn’t argue with internet genius though.

The flu has been around since the beginning of recorded time. Covid 19 has been around a couple months. Sorry I don’t have an answer on what the correct path is.

Jesse Krook wrote:

How do you know it was it? Could have just been a flu….

Flu season is over.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

Sorry G I wasn’t directing the hoax comment at you. Just in general. I see you didn’t argue with internet genius though.

The flu has been around since the beginning of recorded time. Covid 19 has been around a couple months. Sorry I don’t have an answer on what the correct path is.
[/quote]

I don’t claim to have the answer, but after some research, I only offer my opinion… and that is a fact.

OKAY, now that we have the hoax issue cleared up. How about taking this to private messages now?

Rhetorical question.