In 2019 the the US Imported 3.1 Trillion $ of goods and only exported 2.5 Trillion $. My guess is since 2019 that Gap has become much larger. Several of the worlds leading economist believe the current ratio to 2-1 if not more. I doubt we will see that Gap close anytime soon.
I think we are seeing just how much control over our economy China has and what they could do if they wanted to. Or are they already.
You have to keep in mind that China has both its own store to mind as far as the economy and ultimately they have billions of mouths to feed.
Just like the USA and any other country, China can’t just stop producing in order to satisfy a political purpose. China is in the production and export business and they need the income from that business for the same reasons we do.
The Chinese certainly can pull some strings in the short term as they did when they thoroughly defeated the Trump-imposed trade war by simply buying billions of dollars in agricultural products from other sources leaving the US out in the cold costing us billions. So yes, the Chinese can use economic weapons and since they are a dictatorship, they can control their country in ways we cannot.
But that kind of manipulation can only last so long when it comes to manipulating a free global market. They could starve us of big-screen TVs or cell phones, or whatever for a while, but eventually, they have to sell and sell at a rate the market will bear because that’s the business they are in and no sale = no income = no food.
Most of the issue here is us. Shortages are demand-driven because during COVID the US consumer basically went on a freaking crazy spending spree.
IMO the spending spree is coming to an end. I was looking at RVs over the past few weeks and the dealer’s lots are basically stuffed to the gills with inventory. Last year you couldn’t get a travel trailer at any price and now the lots are full of them.
I think next year we will see normal service, as they say. resuming in the recreational toy market. The backlog in other sectors may take a while longer to work through, but even with a red hot economy, eventually production will catch up.
Production of RV manufacturing is lagging and it’s not a lack of demand.
So all those RV lots that are stuffed full of units sitting there are sold already? or are they the wrong ones that no one will buy?
Asking for a friend…..
I honestly think these prices are here to stay. I think the same thing is going to continue in the auto industry. Lower inventory levels and drive up the price. It will lead to lower profitability based on production reduction, but they are not applying tons of incentives to move inventory like they did in the past. I mean, they would discount half ton trucks like 10k plus all the time a few years ago. Now if there is ANY rebate you are lucky. Most new vehicles are going for near MSRP.
I really should sell my boat. It hasnt gotten out much the last two years and its sort of depressing. Considered selling my truck too and just running my son’s SUV that we have parked for a while too. I was offered nearly what I paid for it almost 2 years ago and they would cut me a check on the spot.
I heard on the radio this morning that Ford will be moving to a new business model with fewer vehicles in stock at dealerships, and most vehicles will be purchased on order — sounds familiar and scary to me. If other makers follow suit that will secure me squarely in the used vehicle market. Which is fine, I’ve never bought a new vehicle anyway.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>CaptainMusky wrote:</div>
I honestly think these prices are here to stay. I think the same thing is going to continue in the auto industry. Lower inventory levels and drive up the price. It will lead to lower profitability based on production reduction, but they are not applying tons of incentives to move inventory like they did in the past. I mean, they would discount half ton trucks like 10k plus all the time a few years ago. Now if there is ANY rebate you are lucky. Most new vehicles are going for near MSRP.
I really should sell my boat. It hasnt gotten out much the last two years and its sort of depressing. Considered selling my truck too and just running my son’s SUV that we have parked for a while too. I was offered nearly what I paid for it almost 2 years ago and they would cut me a check on the spot.I heard on the radio this morning that Ford will be moving to a new business model with fewer vehicles in stock at dealerships, and most vehicles will be purchased on order — sounds familiar and scary to me. If other makers follow suit that will secure me squarely in the used vehicle market. Which is fine, I’ve never bought a new vehicle anyway.
You and everyone else will be there. Made to order will be the future of autos. No one wants the inventory and the model of inflated package pricing for autos with so called “deep” discounts isn’t how people want to buy.
Another point….if interest rates stay low used is even less attractive for many folks. Used carries higher interest rates than new and you won’t ever see 0 interest opportunities. Something like 80% of vehicle purchases are financed so cash buyers are the minority.
Not saying this fits you…I was a strictly pre owned buyer until my last two trucks so I get your point. But, the used market didn’t make sense financially for trucks. Still doesn’t.
HRG, what boat did you order?
I’m assuming another Lund.
Yes sir, just a little 1650 Angler tiller. The new house we built has a tiny garage, and I’m currently limited as far as a tow vehicle, but it should serve the purpose of helping me not catch fish,,,
You doing OK buddy? HRG
So all those RV lots that are stuffed full of units sitting there are sold already? or are they the wrong ones that no one will buy?
Asking for a friend…..
Yeah, I guess I’d like to know that too. The sales guys are certainly showing them like I could have bought them all if I’d have wanted.
So if they are all sold what are the owners waiting for to pick them up? November camping?
So if they are all sold what are the owners waiting for to pick them up?
On one of the vehicle forums I look at, guys are complaining that their new (ordered) 5’er is in, yet their new (also ordered) truck is nowhere to be found, months overdue,,,,,
HRG
526,000 RV’s are being made this year. There were parts slowdowns in addition to a shortage of foam for the cushions. Currently they are short of help and some manufactures have cut hours to man full shifts. If your local dealer is full they are likely a Camping World who order more units than anybody else.
Of the last 4 dealers I delivered to 3 of them were understocked and complaining they couldn’t get enough units. The 4th was in California and I don’t pay any attention to anything said out there. I would say their lot was at 50% capacity.
I dunno…..this whole thing sounds like it should be a separate forum on Reddit.
50k for camper, 80k for truck to pull it, 75k for the boat to accompany both of them. All of which will need the 4 dollar a gallon gas/ diesel to make the mouse spin the wheels inside.
All on 100k a year salary to make the payments……..
guess I just don’t seem to make the numbers continue to align, but maybe I’m too negative.
Rumor and speculation can pump demand only for so long……… 
50k for camper, 80k for truck to pull it, 75k for the boat to accompany both of them. All of which will need the 4 dollar a gallon gas/ diesel to make the mouse spin the wheels inside.
All on 100k a year salary to make the payments
LOL ya the math just doesn’t add up there, does it? 
I reckon my 98 crestliner will do me fine for a few more years. The time will come when cheap money dries up, the economy will turn down, taxes will rise and more than a few will be caught full monty.
With interest rates going up and the threat of recession approaching, do you think we will see any decrease in boat prices, particularly used boat prices? Any thoughts on if there will be an increase in used boats on the market from the people that purchased boats the past few years?
With interest rates going up and the threat of recession approaching, do you think we will see any decrease in boat prices, particularly used boat prices? Any thoughts on if there will be an increase in used boats on the market from the people that purchased boats the past few years?
if the recession comes with massive layoffs and job loss for people yeah im sure some people will start to sell toys and if they are desperate enough you might get a really low price. otherwise i doubt it
With interest rates going up and the threat of recession approaching, do you think we will see any decrease in boat prices, particularly used boat prices? Any thoughts on if there will be an increase in used boats on the market from the people that purchased boats the past few years?
All depends on how bad the recession gets imo. Gas prices are another big factor that has changed the cost of ownership/use of a boat.
I keep a curious eye on the used boat market and watched it skyrocket over the last two years. I feel it’s leveled-off this season but remains high. I do think we’ll see a lot of people off-loading boats as we go through the next year and with less liquid cash and money being more expensive to borrow, I’m thinking (hoping) we’ll see a much-needed downturn.
Break off your pricetag rearview mirror.
^^^Agree. New boat prices set the market. As well as supply and demand.
New boats have gone up 10-30 percent the last 3 years. If you are waiting for pre pandemic prices, well good luck I hope you find that unicorn.
I can’t see anything changing as of now, with prices really just leveling off. It’s going to take something pretty drastic to see widespread price decreases. I wouldn’t bet on them. If crude oil prices stay this high into next Spring, the cruisers, jet skis, and such seem like they’d be the first to maybe see a lag in sales and an increase in used supply. Fishing boats are beloved. There are many people who will risk/sell/cut other things before selling their fishing boat whether it’s a 14’ with a 9.9, or a 21’ Ranger.
This should be a fun topic to come back to when the recession hits. Just anecdotal, but I check the boat ads (FB, WC classifieds, and Craigslist) fairly often. Even though I’m not in the market. I’m noticing more used boats that are listed for weeks rather than days or just hours.
I’m going to sell both my boats soon and start shopping for a lightly used tiller this winter. I’ll keep cash in hand and hope prices drop in January
This should be a fun topic to come back to when the recession hits. Just anecdotal, but I check the boat ads (FB, WC classifieds, and Craigslist) fairly often. Even though I’m not in the market. I’m noticing more used boats that are listed for weeks rather than days or just hours.
X2
More supply/options also.
This should be a fun topic to come back to when the recession hits. Just anecdotal, but I check the boat ads (FB, WC classifieds, and Craigslist) fairly often. Even though I’m not in the market. I’m noticing more used boats that are listed for weeks rather than days or just hours.
It’s almost the 4th of July. Not exactly the busiest boat buying time of the year.
I’ve been seeing a lot more campers staying on the market, but that’s different from the boat market. So many campers out there churned out in massive quantities in those Indiana factories. I think the market will soon be flooded with them.
But I agree with others that the boat market has a ways to go. The top-end 30 ft cruisers that sit in $15K slips will be the first to go, but beyond that, the fishing boat market won’t crash by any stretch.
Would be nice to be able to get a lightly used 4 yr old fish house for under 10k again
I think the boat market is definitely slowing down, lots of boats sitting for weeks instead of days. Prices seem to have leveled off at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go down some if this recession gets really bad.
Would be nice to be able to get a lightly used 4 yr old fish house for under 10k again
Hey I was thinking the same. Not 20k for a 2014 18ft. Lol I still scratch my head at the guys who paid those prices
I’ve recently driven from northern Mn. to Florida and back. One thing that stuck out. Nearly every RV dealer had campers side by side, with just enough room to open the door or run a slide out. Unlike car lots parked end to end. Also nearly every one had units off the usual paved surface. On the grass or new gravel. Keep in mind most units are sold annually at the Januaryish RV shows. My buddy in Arizona spoke to his dealer, things are dying on the vine there too. Like 2008, the last time Washington helped gas over $4.00. But a few new factors. Both my brothers retired and bought campers. The one in Missouri said he couldn’t reserve a Corp. camp site for a month. Weekends were taken all summer. That doesn’t work well for families with busy schedules. Then every one I know that has bought units recently. The dealer has it more than they do. One has times used, to new refrigerators ratio is 2:1. Indiana was one of the first states to tell residents. If you want a pay check. You better get back to work. Even with shortages. Campers are basic enough to substitute for things in short supply. My other brother lives an hour and a half west of Chicago. When I drove I80 to his house a few weeks a go. I counted over 40 new RV units on transports coming out of Indiana, in less than an hour and a half. One transport of cars sand trucks, and no boats. I think RVs will be one of the first things to hit the wall. Unless you have it on a spot that someone can keep if they buy the unit. Then you have a goldmine. At the current rate. The cost of living is going to cause fun money to dry up for a very large percentage of the population. A friend of mine is just now seeing that in his gun shop. If you can wait on buying anything. Now is the worst time to be buying anything. I’ve noticed my last few visits to Menards. Besides half the crowd. Most young families I watched coming out had one or two items. Mostly to FIX something at home. No carts or new flooring or other large purchases.
I priced out a 2022 Lund Renegade 1775 with a 90 hp 4-stroke and it came to $40 grand. I think I’ll pass and keep using my 2015 Ranger for now.
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