2023/2024 NHL/WILD Offseason-Season-Postseason Thread

JoeMX1825 wrote:

but there’s gotta be a human inputting the data right?

There’s a human inputting every stat ever created lol how philosophical do you want to get here. The official stat keepers record shot locations and the computer takes it from there.

Expected goals is just an upgrade from raw shot totals. It takes raw shots and accounts for location and pre-shot activity like turnovers and rebounds. The whole point is to make a Joel Eriksson Ek tap in rebound a lot more valuable than a Jon Merril grenade from the corner of the blueline or a Ryan Hartman dump in on net. In raw shots and save percentage for goalies those 3 plays are all equal. In expected goals or goals saved above expected the Ek play is a big number and the other two are barely even blips on the radar.

JoeMX1825 wrote:

We know how bad the Wild were this season against the upper teams vs playing well against the lower teams, curious what that Flower vs Gus breakdown looks like? Who got more games against those top teams?

Really quick and dirty here, and doesn’t account for starts or getting pulled or how they actually performed in these games. Just the raw workload.

Flower played 22 of 40 games against playoff teams
Gus played 25 of 45 games against playoff teams

Updated:

Flower .867 save percentage in 22 games against playoff teams
Gus .896 save percentage in 25 games against playoff teams

tswoboda wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ripjiggen wrote:</div>
Flower did go like 10-1-1 at one stretch of the season when Gus was struggling.

OK and how did his other 30 games go?

Feel like I’m the only Wild fan not giving Flower a pass because he’s a living legend

Not giving him a pass. Just stating he stepped in and performed well as a 1B for a solid stretch.

tswoboda wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>JoeMX1825 wrote:</div>
but there’s gotta be a human inputting the data right?

There’s a human inputting every stat ever created lol how philosophical do you want to get here. The official stat keepers record shot locations and the computer takes it from there.

Expected goals is just an upgrade from raw shot totals. It takes raw shots and accounts for location and pre-shot activity like turnovers and rebounds. The whole point is to make a Joel Eriksson Ek tap in rebound a lot more valuable than a Jon Merril grenade from the corner of the blueline or a Ryan Hartman dump in on net. In raw shots and save percentage for goalies those 3 plays are all equal. In expected goals or goals saved above expected the Ek play is a big number and the other two are barely even blips on the radar.

ok, does it take into account say 1 of those Ek rebound goals was due to a shot from the point and the defense were up higher up in the crease so it was basically Ek vs the goalie..

vs another Ek rebound goal where it was a shot from the point and 2 defenseman and Ek and another Wild player were all tight in the crease and the goalie was scrambling on his pads and during that chaos Ek got a stick jab on the puck?

Are those 2 goals recorded differently from a metric perspective? That’s where my hesitancy lies with the metrics, if they take into consideration those small variables which likely have a huge impact on the end result..

Sorry leaving out that he was 6-13-4 in the other 23 games is what I considered giving him a pass

tswoboda wrote:

Sorry leaving out that he was 6-13-4 in the other 23 games is what I considered giving him a pass

Do we know what the Wild did offensively in those other games vs during his winning streak? IF we’re only scoring a goal or two its tough for goalies to get W’s and vice versa…

JoeMX1825 wrote:

ok, does it take into account say 1 of those Ek rebound goals was due to a shot from the point and the defense were up higher up in the crease so it was basically Ek vs the goalie..

vs another Ek rebound goal where it was a shot from the point and 2 defenseman and Ek and another Wild player were all tight in the crease and the goalie was scrambling on his pads and during that chaos Ek got a stick jab on the puck?

Are those 2 goals recorded differently from a metric perspective?

The public models don’t include player tracking yet, private models do. The one Russo was quoting – SportLogiq – is a private model and I assume it does include player tracking and pre-shot passing plays.

Just to be clear I’m not saying expected goals is perfect by any stretch. It’s just miles better than raw shot volumes. And with players wearing chips and the tracking data becoming more available, expected goals will continue to get better in the future.

There was a Friedman/Marek podcast early this season where the interviewed a goalie coach/scout and he said save percentage and goals against average are virtually completely extinct in high end goalie evaluation. The #1 stat they look at is goals saved above expected, and then other tracking numbers like rebound control, etc. Obviously that goes along with actually watching players play side of the evaluation.

And I’m also not saying any of these stats are a replacement for watching games and watching players. But just knowing the numbers and understanding what they say adds another layer to evaluation. Stats don’t paint the picture by an means, but they can add to it. Numbers are unbiased and can help you realize things you may have otherwise completely missed or disregarded. Yes numbers can be manipulated, and that’s why I always try to look at a full season and not just cherry pick hot streaks and cold streaks.

But ignoring stats and just trying to discredit every single stat that you don’t like is nothing more than willful ignorance. And for some, ignorance is bliss

JoeMX1825 wrote:

<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>tswoboda wrote:</div>
Sorry leaving out that he was 6-13-4 in the other 23 games is what I considered giving him a pass

Do we know what the Wild did offensively in those other games vs during his winning streak? IF we’re only scoring a goal or two its tough for goalies to get W’s and vice versa…

I never said I ignored them, I just said they are open for interpretation based on how the data is pulled together and other variables not captured that can effect the data…

I look at scenarios like how a goalie plays for one team and then gets traded and looks like a completely different goalie and is backed up by data (Gus in Ottawa vs Gus here last year) Now is that because the goalie himself somehow got alot better at playing the goalie position after the trade or is it just a product of all the other variables outside of his control (Team defense, Team offense, PP/PK frequency, Defense size, goalie size, etc) that effect his metric outcomes during the game? It can be some skill improvement where maybe a goalie coach see’s a hole in his game, but its likely heavily weighted by the team metrics and that’s 20 other players all adding to it…

With Gus it sounds like part of it was being fat and out of shape. And he got called lazy by the coach this year, after signing a 3 year deal.

It’s easy to see why everyone loves Flower and there’s a lot less love for Gus. But that love has obviously clouded the fanbase’s view of these 2 goalies. There’s not one thing that shows Flower was a better goalie than Gus this year, and yet Gus is getting chased outta town and Flower is coming back on a $2.5m deal.

After that extension I’m just really nervous for the goaltending next year, especially after having this season ruined by it.

tswoboda wrote:

With Gus it sounds like part of it was being fat and out of shape. And he got called lazy by the coach this year, after signing a 3 year deal.

It’s easy to see why everyone loves Flower and there’s a lot less love for Gus. But that love has obviously clouded the fanbase’s view of these 2 goalies. There’s not one thing that shows Flower was a better goalie than Gus this year, and yet Gus is getting chased outta town and Flower is coming back on a $2.5m deal.

After that extension I’m just really nervous for the goaltending next year, especially after having this season ruined by it.

I thought the fat jab was funny by BillyG and honestly I don’t think he makes that if he plans on keeping Gus… I think they are dead set on having Flower mentor Jesper next season and then making a decision on what to do with the next goalie signed based on how Jesper does next year… If he’s shows he deserves the crease moving forward, they’ll sign a UFA backup goalie to a likely multi-year deal, if Jesper struggles, they’ll likely look for another mid-level FA goalie to potentially hold serve until Jesper either figures it out or they decide they need to move on from him…

I also think fans are just skeptical of GusBUs having 1 good year, gets a new contract and then reverts back to what got him traded vs Flower having 20 years of mostly success to judge from…

Don’t really care about the goalie of the future stuff, just know it needs to be way better next season. Kaprizov signs his extension next summer. Agree there’s a strong chance it’s Flower and Wallstedt next year and that makes me nervous as hell. Flower couldn’t handle 40 games this year and you’re giving him a 22 year old rookie for a partner next year? Good luck with that.

Good news for the Wild is it’s also the most volatile position so good chance they will be good again next year.

IMO not that it matters, it would be a big mistake to trade Gus now and have wallstedt be the backup. Ive mentioned it many times. There will be injuries during the year and perhaps poor play by the goalies bring him up then. Another year in Iowa wont hurt him. Gus has been brilliant at times, but also dreadful. The things he needs to address are easy to work on with conditioning and focus in practice.

it seems like every season there’s a “Gus Like” goalie reclamation project or 2 that are successful around the league, this gets more to the new team they are playing on vs something the Goalie actually did to get better, so maybe they trade Gus to free up his $3.75 caphit to put elsewhere on the team if they think they can compete for a playoff spot next year and try to keep Kirill happy… Then find another goalie to replace the retiring Flower next offseason….

It’s all going to come down to how GMBG and the other coaches feel about GusBus, if they think the Gus we saw this year is the one that will be moving forward, he’s gone…Wallstedt is a young kid, he’ll have no issues physically carrying the load next season if needed, we should expect there might be a few pain points throughout the season with a rookie, but give him the games to push through them…He’s played Pro Hockey in Sweden since he was 16? and 2 full seasons in the AHL, this isnt some kid out of Junior Hockey…You need to figure out what you have with him, can’t keep kicking the can down the road only to find out he wasn’t worth it and we wasted years of development that could have been used on somebody else.

It’s just taking a massive gamble on Jesper Wallstedt, fans have way too much confidence in this kid. They absolutely need to make the playoffs next year and then have a good showing there.

Who is the last 22 year old goalie to lead a team to the playoffs? I have no idea but it doesn’t really happen, wouldn’t be shocked if it’s actually Flower. Wallstedt will be 21 to start next season.

Pretty sure Flower made the playoffs his rookie year at 18 or something like that. He has made the playoffs what 18 years in a row? Maybe it was his second year at worst. I dont however recall if he was taking much of the load or not.

tswoboda wrote:

Who is the last 22 year old goalie to lead a team to the playoffs? I have no idea but it doesn’t really happen, wouldn’t be shocked if it’s actually Flower. Wallstedt will be 21 to start next season.

Lots of Rookie goalies leading their teams to the playoffs, most are generational though (Roy, Hextall, Baupre, Barrasso, Vasilefsky (I think), Price) those are the more popular ones off the top of my head (Northstars Don Beaupre split his rookie season with Meloche 40/40)

for sure there’s risk in doing it…but the kid has played a ton of professional hockey, haven’t ever heard of him having any confidence issues that typically plague young goalies (from all that has been told, he took the Dallas drubbing like a pro and got better from it) that’s kind of been his calling card and why most scouts and talent evaluators think he’s special…

CaptainMusky wrote:

Pretty sure Flower made the playoffs his rookie year at 18 or something like that. He has made the playoffs what 18 years in a row? Maybe it was his second year at worst. I dont however recall if he was taking much of the load or not.

Flower also stepped into a juggernaut of a young team with multiple future old & young hall of famers and the friggin HOF owner steps on the ice with them (The lockout luck also got them Crosby with Malkin starting at the same time)

What if Flower got drafted by the BlueJackets at #3

Great so as long as Wallstedt is a future hall of famer we should be good for next season Not to mention those are all from a different century, aside from Vasi

I’m not saying he can’t do it. I’m saying willingly doing it with a team that has to make the playoffs and the backup plan being 40 year old Flower is GM malpractice. The kind of thing where if it doesn’t go well, we’ll be hearing the Fire Billy chants.

Devon Levi lived this exact scenario going into this season, but they at least had a better backup plan. Levi was in the AHL by Thanksgiving

tswoboda wrote:

Devon Levi lived this exact scenario going into this season, but they at least had a better backup plan. Levi was in the AHL by Thanksgiving

its also Buffalo, who’s still a few years away from growing out of their complete rebuild…those kids should all be really good, but they are all still learning how to win in the NHL…I like Levi, but he’s going to have to break the mold of goalies needing to be big humans in today’s NHL…

How old was Ottenger a few seasons ago when he lead the Stars to the playoffs and lost in 7 games to Calgary but put up crazy numbers?

Otterberger was 23… and started that season in the AHL

As I said it’s not that he can’t do it. It’s going into a season – a season where you absolutely have to be good – with a 21 year old starting goalie and a 40 year old backup, is nuts.

NHL to SLC is official. The new owner seems pretty excited will be good for that franchise.

tswoboda wrote:

Otterberger was 23… and started that season in the AHL

As I said it’s not that he can’t do it. It’s going into a season – a season where you absolutely have to be good – with a 21 year old starting goalie and a 40 year old backup, is nuts.

I guess the assumption/alternative then is that GusBus will get back to his form from last season?

But if he’s bad again (He’s really only had 1 good year of pro hockey in his career) wouldn’t that be more of a failure than starting a Rookie (albeit with 4 professional seasons (SHL/AHL) under him?

IDK, goalies are generally head cases anyway. They lose confidence and they could be lost forever and never get IT back.

Nope not saying that should bring Gus back. Options are endless, well at least they were before extending Flower at $2.5m. Just saying rolling with a 21 year old and a 40 year old could go very poorly.

If they do bring Gus back they can still go to Wallstedt if Gus sucks. That’s exactly how Otteinger took over in Dallas. There’s No fall back plan if plan A is Wallstedt.

tswoboda wrote:

Nope not saying that should bring Gus back. Options are endless, well at least they were before extending Flower at $2.5m. Just saying rolling with a 21 year old and a 40 year old could go very poorly.

If they do bring Gus back they can still go to Wallstedt if Gus sucks. That’s exactly how Otteinger took over in Dallas. There’s No fall back plan if plan A is Wallstedt.

what were the endless options that $2.5 was going to get you?

tswoboda wrote:

If they do bring Gus back they can still go to Wallstedt if Gus sucks. That’s exactly how Otteinger took over in Dallas. There’s No fall back plan if plan A is Wallstedt.

T spitting facts.

Flower at $2.5m would be the 32nd highest paid goalie this year… so basically any other backup

Don’t disagree, but do they really need the money next season. Roster is kind of set for next season minus maybe a 6h d man.

Bucci might have called it in pregame, looks like Kirill is going for 50

You know for how all we ragged her for her play by play Leah hextall is pretty good in this role I think.