NFL pre-game shows

Every network has 5-7 former players and “experts” predicting the outcome of every game. Has anybody ever followed how accurate they have been?

It’s one thing to pick a winner. Picking a winner that covers the point spread or betting line is another!

-J.

wkw wrote:

Every network has 5-7 former players and “experts” predicting the outcome of every game. Has anybody ever followed how accurate they have been?

Well who did they pick last night?

If a game kicks at 7:20 and I want to watch it, I turn on the TV at about 7:18. These pregame shows just keep getting earlier/longer, and worse.

wkw wrote:

Every network has 5-7 former players and “experts” predicting the outcome of every game. Has anybody ever followed how accurate they have been?

Most of them keep a record of their picks over the course of the season. But I would like to see where everyone stacks up across ESPN/Fox/CBS etc. And I’d also love to see the draft “experts” success rate, both in their mocks and their long term predictions.

BigWerm wrote:

I’d also love to see the draft “experts” success rate, both in their mocks and their long term predictions.

I’m sure you’ve seen them, but now and then you’ll see articles “re-drafting” a certain year based on how guys have ended up. For example (not being a homer just because they are/were Vikings) but you really think Danielle Hunter would be a 4th-rounder if people knew what he’d become? Stefon Diggs a 5th-rounder?

I’ve said this many times before but I think it bears repeating-an in-depth study was done evaluating drafting by franchises going back to the mid-80’s and the study showed that no franchise really stood out among the rest of the league when it came to draft success. People suffer from recency bias, and high picks that don’t turn out are low-hanging fruit for everyone, but the reality is every franchise is making educated guesses, projecting who might work for their team.