Pool 4- How High is the Water Momma?

About a month ago the FW was saying we are going to be in for major flooding on the river this year. I asked who said that? She said “they” said it.

I explained to her that there is no way of predicting flooding this early in the year. It’s all about freeze/thaw days and nights, rain AND the amount of snow. Too many working parts.

Yesterday “they” said it’s going to be a very low chance of any flooding this year, she told me.

To me it could still go either way. But I think we made a little headway with the last couple weeks of warm daytime temps.

All winter the level in Red Wing hung around the 2.5′ range. Forecast shows 3.5′ in the next week.

Instead of listening to “they”, what are your old farts predictions?

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No reason for me to predict, I have too little faith in my predictions… and I’m not an old fart so you didn’t ask either

But, I have a desire for high water… ya know the stupid fast stuff that the ido crowd gets worked up about river safety.

Lots of water will be coming down the St Croix, Chippewa,. and other watersheds. Lots of snow up north. I believe we will have higher water than the past few years but nothing serious. That could change with early spring warm up and thunderstorms. I think it will be perfect conditions for some good backwater sloughs and hopefully stays high awhile for a good spawn.

I’m guessing something average here on Pool 4 with a few weeks of high water, but nothing record breaking or causing significant damage.

Factors to Consider:

-substantial snow pack to the north
-thinner ice for most of the season locally (ice dam issues unlikely during the big thaw)
-minimal frost here locally
-very stable temperatures for the 10 day forecast and beyond

I’m a believer in early rains being the biggest factor to sway things quickly. Snow pack is reliably slow to melt and even multiple feet of snow hold only as much water as a heavy thunderstorm or 2. If we have heavy rains here in the next few weeks everything will change. If we escape March without heavy rains and with the minimal frost I think we will avoid flooding

No idea what’s going to happen. I do know the current conditions have been fantastic for fishing and boating. One good period of rain could change things fast. Until then I’ll enjoy what we have now.

My gut says yes but I really have no idea since several factors must align as bk says. We certainly have one of those factors.

The river will do what the river wants to do.

It would be all too easy to get a week of temps in the 40’s at night with daytime thunderstorms given what our weather has been this past year. S’pose that would fudge your predictor’s predictions?

Sit back, relax, and get ready to shovel today’s/tonight’s snow tomorrow. That’s predictable.

To many variables. Better off throwing a dart at a board blind folded.

Fast warm up, no wind, full sun and a few quick heavy rains could change things quickly.

Slow warm up, cloudy days, no rain, high winds, the frost pops out early and it’d be a low chance of flooding.

I’ll give it a maybe.

Please keep your run off up there. I appreciate your thoughtfulness in wanting to share; but really it is not wanted. So please, keep it to yourself. Fishing over 100k cfs sucks donkey balls

MX1825 wrote:

I’ll give it a maybe.

Today’s winning answer!!

The MN river should be sending some water your way. Still mostly frozen by me but has definitely risen a few feet recently.

Probable Forecast 3/13/23 to 6/11/23 from the NWS

100% chance of reaching 13′ in Red Wing
93% chance of reaching 14′ Minor Flooding
85% chance of reaching 15′ Moderate Flooding
65% chance of reaching 16′ Major Flooding in Red Wing

This is a fluid forecast (Love that Pun).

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^They definitely are leaning towards some form of flooding. It will be interesting to see how it changes.

We woke up to a fresh 5″ of snow here along Pool 4. There was almost complete bare ground anywhere that had sun exposure with just mud and puddles everywhere.

Road bans are on for the WI side of Pool 4 already. They aren’t joking when they say there’s no frost. Hopefully our dry ground can start soaking stuff up.

I think the timing of a big rainstorm will be the deciding factor….

Here is the summary from the National Weather Service Twin Cities 2023 Spring Flood Outlook:

Summary
We continued to add to the snowpack in February and early March, and the flood probabilities have risen in response. Alleviating factors such as soil moisture and low water levels are going to have less relevance as we move through March, while shallow frost depth will help a little. The weather outlook through March is for continued cooler than normal conditions, which could allow for the snowpack to remain in place as we move toward April and the increasing probabilities of seeing a warm and/or wet weather system. Thus, our spring flood threat is well above normal, especially for the Mississippi River from St. Paul downstream (as the upper Mississippi joins the Minnesota, St. Croix, and Chippewa Rivers which all have a high snowpack).

It’s now not so much a question of if we will see flooding, but how severe and widespread will it be? The severity of flooding will depend on if we receive heavy rainfall and/or very warm temperatures during the melt.

Due to the nature of this year’s flood threat, we will issue an additional spring flood outlook in two weeks, on March 23rd.
Of course, we’ll always issue briefings and decision support packets if flooding becomes imminent or potentially significant. Keep an eye on upcoming weather patterns at weather.gov/mpx , and monitor river levels at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=mpx .

INMO –
We do have a chance at epic flooding if the planets line up.
However, one thing we have on our side is we received an early snow pack which prevented frost from forming deep.

I will be curious as around here there is little to no frost under the snow pack. Before yesterdays snow many areas the water was soaking into the ground and drying up.

They can’t predict the weather 10 days out but they are predicting a flood ? Seems a little like putting the cart ahead of the horse to me .

They predicted the 1991 flood mid Feb that year. Nailed it.

-J.

steve-demars wrote:

It’s now not so much a question of if we will see flooding, but how severe and widespread will it be? The severity of flooding will depend on if we receive heavy rainfall and/or very warm temperatures during the melt.

“Mississippi River at Red Wing (REDM5)
More than a 50 percent chance of reaching Major Flood Stage:
Minor: 93% vs. 19% normal
Moderate: 83% vs. 14% normal
Major: 67% vs. 10% normal”

Might want to get your spring fishing in now rather then later. Major flood stage isn’t pretty for anglers.

I’ll take one of those heavy downpours ASAP please. Scrub the roads off of sand and chemicals so the Shelby can come out of hiding

BoatsHateMe wrote:

I’ll take one of those heavy downpours ASAP please. Scrub the roads off of sand and chemicals so the Shelby can come out of hiding

Here in SW WI we had a good hard rain already a couple of weeks ago. The roads were washed of salt and there was no snow to be seen. Well that ended yesterday with 4.5 inches of the white stuff. Salt on the highways again so another heavy rain is needed to clean up the roads.
Oh by the way Madison got over 12 inches of snow and some places in WI got up to 20 inches!

7 am March 27th 2023 Lovin’ the slow rise…

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PSA for Spring 2023

We’ve had some low water for a very very long time. With the water starting to rise, it will be picking up all the branches, logs and TREE’s that have come down since the last high water.

Speed will not be your friend when this happens. I’ve see too many engine mount break and the running motor end up inside the passenger compartment over the last few year, not to mention boaters being ejected from their boats from hitting a log.

Always boat with a friend.
Always wear your kill tether.
Always wear your PFD.

(don’t forget to check if you have current registration on your boat)

/end of PSA

That log upstream from the back channel will be skimming just under water with the predicted rise . Suckers dangerous .

Yes, it would be nice if someone that’s going out on the water could tack a bottle to it.

I’m not sure when I’ll be getting out or I would do it myself.

Mark it on your gps folks!

Ahh the Mississippi River
Folks want to think it’s safe as a sidewalk.

Well, normal flows I’d say it’s comparable to a two lane highway… in that accidents still happen every day.

High water opportunities to wreck stuff goes up, could be compared to metro traffic. Difference being your responsible for all accidents occurring and not some other driver. Pay attention. Read the river. Or pay the price.

Hazards are always there they just increase in frequency. I’ve said it before and will say it again. High flow here is normal flow down south. Get your panties in a bunch if you like. Or recognize it’s just another day in Memphis.

If you think the sippi is bad, spend some time on the MN River. You’ll find the sippi to be more like a kids playground than this scary thing made out to be.

I’m not making light of the situation saying it’s not full of hazards. I’m saying it’s always hazardous and too often people think now is the only time to pay attention.

I’ve seen widowmakers at any time of day any flow and on all the big 3 River systems. Always pay attention. Your PSA Brian, applies always.

Brian Klawitter wrote:

Yes, it would be nice if someone that’s going out on the water could tack a bottle to it.

I’m not sure when I’ll be getting out or I would do it myself.

Mark it on your gps folks!

What ever happened to that guy that was going to put markers on every hazard on pool 4?

They’ve actually backed off a bit on the flood forecast for the Wabasha gauge. The probability piece is still predicting moderate flooding, but the likelihood of historic flooding was lowered a bit with this week’s update.

I’m thinking a lot of the high water will come late this year well into May and early June. Local tributaries along Pool 4 are at very normal levels with most of the nearby snow already gone. The melt from the North has barely started and we turn the calendar to April this weekend.