Northwest Ontario Ice Out Predictions

I was just out on Lower Manitou Lake today and there is about 3″ of slushy snow and standing water everywhere, some places its 2″ of water some 7-8″. I saw 2 small holes in the ice where water was running down, in a day or two they will be 2-3′ in diameter. I am guessing the lake will pop in 4-5 days and it will be great ice fishing with ATV’s for another 2 weeks, but then the shorelines will start to break away and we will be done.
I know it’s early, but at this rate I am guessing April 22-25 range.

Hello,

Can you explain what you mean when you say the “lake will
pop in 4-5 days.”

Thanks,

Dan

Just a guess but I think he is referring to enough weight (snow,slush,water) will run thru the holes and cracks and the ice will then spring upwards and float again. Just a guess tho.

Quote:

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Just a guess but I think he is referring to enough weight (snow,slush,water) will run thru the holes and cracks and the ice will then spring upwards and float again. Just a guess tho.

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That was my guess as well.

Red Lab,

You are right, The heavy water is sitting on the ice right now and pushing it down once the water runs through all the cracks and holes it can float again. We call it the lake popping, I don’t know if that’s the right term or not?

Its getting close to popping here too Outfitter. There are a ton of snmall air holes popping up letting the water drain. I am thinking we may have an early ice out for sure.

Given the latest weather and forecast for this week it would seem that Ice Out will be much earlier this year than last year. Last year it seemed like it was the 2nd week of May. Do you still think it is April 22?

With the conditions they way they are right now, I will have to update my ice out prediction to around April 8-10 range.
The weather forecasted for this area the next five days is high in the middle 60’s with rain wed.,thur., fri.
It’s going to go fast – so get your boats ready.

Wow. That is a lot earlier than last year! Right? Hope the fishing is a good as last year (Smallies). We go May 19-25 (Same as last year) and I would think that they would be up shallow in pre-spawn still. I love pre-spawn with Pop-R’s shallow.

Thanks for the info Outfitter.

Hey Ron,

Yes, it is alot earlier than last year. The past 2 years my lake has out on May 14 (2008), May 5 (2009). The earliest I can remember was Ap. 17 a few years back and I know we are going to be ahead of that date with the weather that is here and on it’s way.
Regarding smallies, I don’t know where you go, but on our lake they would normally bed around the middle of june, know I am guessing late may/ 1st bit of june this year.
Everything with be ahead of schedule, maybe on the lake you are on they might even be bedding when you get there?

Outfitter,

We are going to Sawbill Bay, just North of Atikokan, this year. Last year we were at Dibble/Dimple Lake (just above White Otter). I am hoping they will still be in prespawn when we get there but you may be right. They may well be on the beds by then. Fun sight fishing, but pretty easy pickin’s as aggressive as they are. Maybe we can back off and catch some of the late bloomers waiting their turn.

Also maybe the Pike will still be a bit shallow and aggressive. I like fishing for them as well.

Checked out Camp Manitou online. Nice place you have. Might need to talk to you about a second trip in late summer. Hope you have a good season.

Ron

Ok Ron,

You are staying with CC, is Sawbill bay on Mormiam (sp.) lake? If it is stained water then you may being looking at bed fishing during your trip, stained water warms up quicker than trout water being it is darker. With the darker water and early ice out patterns will be ahead of schedule.

Outfitter,

Yes, we are staying with CC. Nice guess. You know Jeremy? And yes Sawbill Bay is on the North End of Marmion Lake. This is our first time going to that lake. From pictures I have seen it looks a bit stained. I will make sure to pack Sweet Beavers and Bitsy Bugs then. Heck, if they are bedding they will hit anything. Again, thanks for all the info. I am getting excited about returning up there and it is good to talk to someone about it.

Ron

Ron,

I know Jeremy, I see him around at a few of the same sport shows I do. He’s a good guy. How many guys do you fly in with on your trips?

Outfitter,

Jeremy is a good guy. Were you in Dallas with the All Canada Show? We usually take anywhere from 2 to 8 people. This year we are taking 8. A really good group. Consists of family and friends. We have been using CC for a few and before that we would go to to Hawk Lake just up 71 off of 17 from you. Good place. Got to $$$. But a great place.

Hey Ron,

I was going to go to the Dallas AC show, but opted out and was at a show in Memphis that weekend.

Kinda glad I didn’t go to the Dallas show. I was talking to a resort owner that has been doing the AC shows for 25+ years and he said it was his worst show ever, From what he said there was basically no traffic. I guess they are going to move the show to a different location and give it another try next year, hopefully with better results. I know there are alot of avid fisherman in your neck of the woods, I guess the AC advertising was a little weak and they really didn’t get the word out about their show?

I think it was both the advertising and location. Didn’t hear much about it prior. Also it was pretty far out, especially for Fort Worth and the mid cities. It was NE of Dallas. It was great for me because I live there but otherwise out of the way. I went to the show to see Jeremy and your friend is right, there was not much traffic. I could see where it would of been his worst show. I am pretty sure everyone felt that way. I am glad they are going to try it again though. Maybe move it to downtown Dallas or in the mid-cities in Arlington.

Yes there are lot’s of avid fisherman here and lot’s that go to Canada. So I think a show could be successful here.

Hope to keep hearing updates from you. They seem to be hard to find.

Ron,

We are going to try to post weekly fishing updates for our area. Starting approx a month from now.

Since you live down in the Dallas area, are there any good sport shows that you would suggest trying? I thought there was a decent one in early Jan., but I can find any info on it?

Thanks,

Matt

Outfitter,

Besides AC, these are the 2 that I know about. The second one is pretty high tone but a really nice show.

http://www.texasfishingshow.com/

http://www.biggame.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=11&Itemid=5

Ron

Thanks Ron,

I was trying to find a show for the weekend of Jan. 8th and they both are on that weekend – perfect. I will take a better look when I get a chance.

Thanks again,

Matt